Who says Black swan events always have a negative impact? They
can also work well on the positive side, as is the case of the
outcome of the Indian general elections. Who could have predicted
the clean sweep by the UPA in the elections? However, the UPA is
indeed about to form a government at the Centre with the Indian
National Congress being the major political party in the coalition
with 206 seats.
Much to the consensus relief, the new government formed will not
need the support of the Left and the alliances of local regional
parties, which would have otherwise impacted the decision making
process of the government had they been party to the coalition. This
will indeed send huge positive signals to the economy and the
capital markets.
So, the big question that remains is where does the market head from here?
In our recent strategy report, we had mentioned that if the election results are favourable then the markets
may reach 14500 levels on the upside in the short run. It did that within two trading sessions after May 16
2009. However, on the first day when markets opened, within a few seconds, for the first time ever, the
market hit the 15% upper circuit followed by an additional 5% rise. This gave no chance to the investors to
buy into the markets. As large caps have rallied substantially, mid caps soon followed suit. Since the
substantial appreciation in large caps has created a huge valuation divergence between large caps and mid
caps, the ongoing run in the mid caps is simply a case of catching up.
We believe that within the midcap universe only quality midcaps will witness sustainable buying interest.
Within this segment, PSU banks, private regional banks, power companies and high leveraged plays will
be preferred. In addition, we are of the view that one should view any deep correction in the markets as an
opportunity to accumulate quality stocks at reasonable valuations.
However, one thing is for sure. This black swan result has indeed increased the visibility of the India
growth story in front of the international investor community. Now, on the back of expectations of better
policy reforms, increased focus on fiscal deficit and high probability of PSU divestments and prudent &
speedy executions related to the important bills like that of FDI in insurance will result in increased FII
participation in India.
Key expectations from the new government:
• Improvement in fiscal management/public
finances via disinvestments
• Increased focus on infrastructure spending
especially power and road/highways.
• Thrust on agriculture and rural development
• Financial sector reforms like increasing FDI in
retail and insurance sector
• Increased focus on education and healthcare
• Providing ample liquidity to corporates and
individuals at affordable rates
We believe the above factors will help in bringing
fresh capital into the country in terms of FDI, FII flows
and ECB flows
Key Beneficiaries
- Insurance plays like SBI, Kotak
Mahindra Bank and Reliance
Capital
- Infrastructure plays like Bhel.
L&T, NTPC etc.
- PSU banking stocks with trigger
of government stake dilution for
example: OBC, Dena Bank, etc.
- PSU space will be in limelight
on expectations of divestments
and new IPOs
Monday, May 25, 2009
Oil Oil Oil!
Prices end week more than 8% higher
Crude oil prices ended substantially higher on Friday, 22 May, 2009 after the dollar dropped to its lowest level of the year. Credit rating concerns over US increased the pressure on dollar after Standard & Poor's Ratings Service warned Britain that it may lose its triple-A rating. Prices also rose as energy department's weekly inventory report showed earlier during the week that there was more than expected drop in crude inventories for last week.
On Friday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for June delivery closed at $61.67/barrel (higher by $0.62 or 1%) on the For the week, crude ended higher by 8.2%.
Crude ended April higher by 2.9%. Previously, March trading ended up 10.9%. It rallied 11.3% in the first quarter. For the month of February, crude prices had ended higher by 1.5%.
Oil prices had reached a high of $147 on 11 July, 2008 but have dropped almost 57% since then. Year to date, in 2009, crude prices are higher by 28.6%. On a yearly basis, crude prices are lower by 51%.
In the currency market on Friday, the U.S. dollar index, fell 0.9%. The greenback fell to the lowest level this year against the euro as worries increased that the U.S. could lose its triple-A credit rating.
EIA reported on Wednesday, 20 May, that crude inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels in the week ended 15 May, 2009. Market was expecting a decline of 1.5 million barrels. Despite the decline, crude inventories, at 368.5 million barrels, were still above the upper boundary of the average range for this time of year. Refineries, meanwhile, operated at 81.8% of their operable capacity last week, slightly higher than a week ago.
Lower refinery production pushed gasoline inventories down by 4.3 million barrels to 204 million barrels, falling below the lower limit of the average range. The EIA also reported distillate stockpiles rose by 600,000 barrels. Motor gasoline demand had averaged about 9.1 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, down by 1.2% from the same period last year. Demand for distillate fuels, which include heating oil and diesel, fell 12%, and jet fuel consumption dropped 9%.
Last week, the International Energy Agency reported that it now expects demand to fall 2.6 million barrels a day from 2008 levels. This is 200,000 barrels more than the IEA had projected a month ago. This perhaps kept further rise in crude prices from check.
Also at the Nymex on Friday, June-reformulated gasoline rose 4.11 cents, or 2.3%, to $1.8408 a barrel, and June heating oil gained slightly to $1.538 a gallon.
Natural gas for June delivery fell 8.8 cents, or 2.4%, to $3.515 per million British thermal units.
Crude prices had ended FY 2008 lower by 54%, the largest yearly loss since trading began at Nymex.
Crude oil prices ended substantially higher on Friday, 22 May, 2009 after the dollar dropped to its lowest level of the year. Credit rating concerns over US increased the pressure on dollar after Standard & Poor's Ratings Service warned Britain that it may lose its triple-A rating. Prices also rose as energy department's weekly inventory report showed earlier during the week that there was more than expected drop in crude inventories for last week.
On Friday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for June delivery closed at $61.67/barrel (higher by $0.62 or 1%) on the For the week, crude ended higher by 8.2%.
Crude ended April higher by 2.9%. Previously, March trading ended up 10.9%. It rallied 11.3% in the first quarter. For the month of February, crude prices had ended higher by 1.5%.
Oil prices had reached a high of $147 on 11 July, 2008 but have dropped almost 57% since then. Year to date, in 2009, crude prices are higher by 28.6%. On a yearly basis, crude prices are lower by 51%.
In the currency market on Friday, the U.S. dollar index, fell 0.9%. The greenback fell to the lowest level this year against the euro as worries increased that the U.S. could lose its triple-A credit rating.
EIA reported on Wednesday, 20 May, that crude inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels in the week ended 15 May, 2009. Market was expecting a decline of 1.5 million barrels. Despite the decline, crude inventories, at 368.5 million barrels, were still above the upper boundary of the average range for this time of year. Refineries, meanwhile, operated at 81.8% of their operable capacity last week, slightly higher than a week ago.
Lower refinery production pushed gasoline inventories down by 4.3 million barrels to 204 million barrels, falling below the lower limit of the average range. The EIA also reported distillate stockpiles rose by 600,000 barrels. Motor gasoline demand had averaged about 9.1 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, down by 1.2% from the same period last year. Demand for distillate fuels, which include heating oil and diesel, fell 12%, and jet fuel consumption dropped 9%.
Last week, the International Energy Agency reported that it now expects demand to fall 2.6 million barrels a day from 2008 levels. This is 200,000 barrels more than the IEA had projected a month ago. This perhaps kept further rise in crude prices from check.
Also at the Nymex on Friday, June-reformulated gasoline rose 4.11 cents, or 2.3%, to $1.8408 a barrel, and June heating oil gained slightly to $1.538 a gallon.
Natural gas for June delivery fell 8.8 cents, or 2.4%, to $3.515 per million British thermal units.
Crude prices had ended FY 2008 lower by 54%, the largest yearly loss since trading began at Nymex.
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